Forecast issued by the Met Office on behalf of UKHSA on Monday, August 5, 2024 at 7:09 AM

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General overview of weather conditions in relation to the hazard (Heat) next 5 days

A northwest/southeast split sets up through the start of the new week, with unsettled, wetter and cooler conditions moving into northwestern parts, and more settled and warmer conditions in the east and southeast. Monday is likely to be dry and bright for much of eastern and southeastern England, feeling warm in the sunshine with max highs of 26 degrees Celsius forecast. Monday night is likely to feel warm and very muggy for many here, with overnight temperatures remaining in the high teens. By Tuesday however, a cold front will move southeastwards across England, introducing cooler conditions in behind it. Only eastern parts of East Anglia and Kent will see warm conditions on Tuesday ahead of this front, with 26 degrees Celsius once again the max forecast. The low impact thresholds are unlikely to be met for either of these two days. The rest of the week is likely to see widespread cooler, changeable conditions across the country, with the warmest conditions remaining in the far east, but still currently expected to be below low impact thresholds throughout.

General overview of weather conditions in relation to the hazard (Heat) 6-15 days

There is reasonable confidence that the UK will see weather dominated by west or northwesterly winds during this period. Rain or showers most likely in the north and west, with drier spells persisting in the south and east. Temperatures probably little below average in the northwest and near or slightly above average in the southeast with a small chance of seeing some brief very warm or hot conditions, possibly followed by thundery breakdowns in the south and east. Chance of exceeding the low threshold at times, most likely in the south and east.

General overview of weather conditions in relation to the hazard (Heat) 16-30 days

Periods of settled and drier spells of weather will be interspersed with the occasional wetter period, much like what we have seen so far this summer with the northwest bearing the brunt of the wetter conditions, staying drier in the southeast. Warmer than average conditions are slightly favoured, especially away from the far northwest with an increased chance of short lived hot spells.